DAMPAK CARBON BORDER ADJUSTMENT MECHANISM (CBAM) PADA PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DAN EMISI KARBON DENGAN MODEL GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS PROJECT (GTAP)

Abstract

This academic study aims to analyze the impact of the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) on international trade and carbon emissions in Indonesia. The research employs the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) version 10, integrating global trade and carbon emission data to simulate the effects of CBAM on exports and imports in six key commodities: cement, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, iron and steel, and hydrogen. The simulation results indicate that the implementation of CBAM could reduce Indonesia’s export volume, increase the selling price of export products, and decrease the import price of goods, especially in carbon-intensive sectors. Additionally, CBAM creates incentives for industries to transition to greener technologies to minimize the carbon tax burden. The simulation also shows that this policy could contribute to reducing Indonesia's carbon emissions, although it may negatively impact trade volumes in the short term. In conclusion, CBAM implementation should be strategically considered by the Indonesian government to support the transition towards a low-carbon economy and achieve the Net Zero Emissions target by 2060.